tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post941724078851991170..comments2022-11-07T05:19:33.664-08:00Comments on Value Ground: Western Union - A Compelling InvestmentValue Groundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15995305832836922419noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-17172914225985242712013-01-21T06:36:05.768-08:002013-01-21T06:36:05.768-08:00"the return to our brain damage for analyzing..."the return to our brain damage for analyzing them is far too unattractive for us to do so" - haha! Hilarious! :-)<br /><br />I agree that there are a ton of possible scenarios yet I believe that the MAJOR factor is whether they settle or not. If they do, it's off to the races, if they don't then a trial will commence. One way to play it is to buy the common and sell if it goes to trial, or hold it if they settle. It makes sense for both sides to settle as the risks to both BAC and MBI are far too great to not settle, but then again anything can happen. But the degree of brain damage one suffers from studying this investment is definitely a consideration :-)Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530836768715852602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-29079641989776244902013-01-21T04:37:21.719-08:002013-01-21T04:37:21.719-08:00Hi Guys,
Sorry for the late reply, we are really...Hi Guys, <br /><br />Sorry for the late reply, we are really max out this few weeks!<br /><br />Sdhari:<br />We do not see it as a possible area of concern at all. The big players usually overpays in order to maintain their monopoly position, which is precisely what WU is trying to do. The benefits of doing so far outweighs the premium they are paying. <br /><br />Mark:<br />We did thought about MBIA a few weeks back, especially during the tender offering of the bonds by BAC which crushed the stock of MBIA. <br />But well, in the end, we gave up! there are too many possible scenarios that could play out, and the return to our brain damage for analyzing them is far too unattractive for us to do so. Value Groundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15995305832836922419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-53831420819944675272013-01-18T08:14:45.210-08:002013-01-18T08:14:45.210-08:00VG, this is unrelated, but what are your thoughts ...VG, this is unrelated, but what are your thoughts on MBIA? Thanks, MarkMarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530836768715852602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-23957856826835212792012-12-24T00:07:21.634-08:002012-12-24T00:07:21.634-08:00Hi Value Ground,
Great write up. I had a couple o...Hi Value Ground,<br /><br />Great write up. I had a couple of comments/questions.<br /><br />What is your opinion of the factoring in the acquisitions that WU has been going through the last several years (paid 13x and 13.5x EBITDA for Custom House and Travelex in May 2009 and Nov 2011.)? Furthermore, do you see this as a possible area of concern (management overpaying for businesses) if WU's core business continues to concern the market?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />SanjeetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-19198757398490288722012-11-08T07:05:14.851-08:002012-11-08T07:05:14.851-08:00Hi Element 8,
Thanks!
We love the share buy bac...Hi Element 8, <br /><br />Thanks! <br />We love the share buy backs, the company can stop growing and shareholders can still do pretty well. <br /><br />As to your question, WU has been growing their volume of transaction y-o-y. From 2007 till 2011, an impressive growth of 34.6%. You do not see it being reflected that much in revenue as they have been reducing price to drive away competitors. <br /><br />In fact, we expect them to do more and more business in the future. As for the near term, it would not show up that well as they recently closed quite a number of agents to comply with regulations. They would also need to replace customers lost through other means of money transfer like paypal, mobile, etc. <br /><br />But in the long run, we believe the market pie is enlarging as a whole and there is lots for them to grow their business. Value Groundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15995305832836922419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-39308607825562632482012-11-08T05:48:32.140-08:002012-11-08T05:48:32.140-08:00The increase in EPS has been mainly driven by shar...The increase in EPS has been mainly driven by share buybacks and an increase in net margin. Revenues and operating income have been increasing, but at a very slow pace.<br /><br />My question is, do you think they can keep pushing net margin further up or is this cruise speed for them?<br /><br />great write-up will definitely be looking further into this one!Elementhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11122924784952402858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-28706859554640672222012-11-07T21:44:32.258-08:002012-11-07T21:44:32.258-08:00The stock market is an overreaction machine. The stock market is an overreaction machine. Value Groundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15995305832836922419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7871012627052779161.post-75740914755769303142012-11-05T20:20:10.490-08:002012-11-05T20:20:10.490-08:00Why is the market is discounting this opportunity ...Why is the market is discounting this opportunity ?Stocks DDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12288966234260002690noreply@blogger.com